Hypothesis plausibility and hypothesis generation

Abstract

A model of the process of generating hypotheses in an inference task is developed. First, a hypothesis retrieval process is assumed which consists of a directed recursive memory search of long-term memory. This memory search is assumed to be triggered by a second plausibility estimation process which assesses the plausibility of hypotheses currently held by the decision maker. Research was conducted to examine these and other assumptions of this model. The assumption that new hypotheses are generated when information renders the currently held hypotheses less probable was supported by the results. A hypothesized plausibility threshold process was also studied. The results suggested that new hypotheses are introduced only if their plausibility is high enough to make them active competitors for the most likely hypothesis.