Explaining Recent Trends in U.S. Homicide Rates

Abstract

During the past decade some sharp swings have occurred in the homicide rate in the United States.The rate in 1980 was a peak of 10.2 per 100,000 population, and by 1985 it fell to a trough of 7.9.It then climbed a full 24% to a peak of 9.8 in 1991, and has been declining markedly since then, reaching a level of 7.4 in 1996 (see Figure 1) and 6.8 in 1997, which is lower than any annual rate since 1967.'The jubilation over this decline is mixed with widespread curiosity over the factors that are responsible for it.In this paper, we explore some of those factors, focusing particularly on those whose effects are reasonably measurable and where aggregates may present a misleading picture.In some cases, for example, we identify aspects of some variable contributing to an increase in homicide and other aspects of the same variable contributing to a decrease.This is the case, for example, with age.During the late 1980s, young people were contributing to an increase in homicides while older people were committing fewer homicides and contributing to a decrease.In other cases, there are important .