Numerical and verbal decision analysis: comparison on practical cases
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TL;DR
Both approaches were attempted on two comparable choices, facing both Russian and US government agencies, involving a choice between oil and gas transportation options, and a systematic comparison of the strong and weak features of each approach is presented.
Abstract
Numerical decision analysis (NDA), derived from statistical decision theory, is very well known. Verbal decision analysis (VDA), oriented towards so-called unstructured problems, where the qualitative and uncertain factors dominate, is a newer direction in decision theory and practice. Verbal and numerical decision analyses (DAs) have been compared in an experimental setting, with groups of students. This paper presents the results of a comparison in the context of live practical tasks. Both approaches were attempted on two comparable choices, facing both Russian and US government agencies, involving a choice between oil and gas transportation options. The resulting methodological insights are generalized into a systematic comparison of the strong and weak features of each approach. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.