Agent-based modeling as organizational and public policy simulators

This paper argues that new analytic approaches for decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty—emphasizing large ensembles of model-created scenarios and adaptive policies evaluated with the criteria of robustness, rather than with optimality or efficiency—can unleash the full potential of agent-based policy simulators.

Abstract

Agent-based models are an increasingly powerful tool for simulating social systems because they can represent important phenomenon difficult to capture in other mathematical formalisms. But, agent-based models have provided only limited support for policy-making because their distinctive abilities are often most useful in situations where the future is unpredictable. In such situations, the traditional analytic methods for applying simulation models to support decision-making are least effective. Fortunately, new analytic approaches for decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty--emphasizing large ensembles of model-created scenarios and adaptive policies evaluated with the criteria of robustness, rather than with optimality or efficiency--can unleash the full potential of agent-based policy simulators.