Investigating the Role of Time in Affective Forecasting: Temporal Influences on Forecasting Accuracy

Using extensive diary data from people taking their driver's license exam, the authors investigated the role of time in affective forecasting accuracy and accurately predicted a decrease of their affective reactions over time but underestimated the speed with which this decrease would occur.

Abstract

Using extensive diary data from people taking their driver's license exam, the authors investigated the role of time in affective forecasting accuracy. Replicating existing findings, participants grossly overestimated the intensity and duration of their negative affect after failure and only slightly overestimated the intensity and duration of their positive affect after success. Extending existing findings, participants accurately predicted a decrease of their affective reactions over time but underestimated the speed with which this decrease would occur. In addition, they showed greater forecasting accuracy for positive affect than negative affect when the exam was distant and greater forecasting accuracy for negative affect than positive affect when the exam was close. The motivational processes underlying these findings are being discussed.