Probability Theory as Logic

A more complete discussion of why probabilities need not correspond to physical causal influences, or “propensities” affecting mass phenomena, is given.

Abstract

At the 1988 workshop we called attention to the "Mind Projection Fallacy" which is present in all fields that use probability. Here we give a more complete discussion showing why probabilities need not correspond to physical causal influences, or "propensities" affecting mass phenomena. Probability theory is far more useful if we recognize that probabilities express fundamentally logical inferences pertaining to individual cases. We note several examples of the difference this makes in real applications.