The Strategic Defense Initiative and Nuclear Proliferation from a Risk Analysis Perspective

Abstract

The two essays by Starr and Whipple and by Rowen deal with nuclear proliferation. The Starr and Whipple chapter lays stress on the difficulties in quantification given the mindsets in viewing the risk of nuclear war. They note that when fears, emotions, and prejudices run high, a qualitative risk analysis is called for. The paradox of MAD (mutually assured destruction) is noted, the basic theme being that if all have enough second strike ability to wipe each other out, no one will move first. The destabilizing aspects of SDI (strategic defense initiative) are noted. But even without SDI, as the number of countries with nuclear arms and delivery systems increases, so does the instability of the system. The background of Starr is hard science, engineering, and management, while that of Rowen is in political economy, defense studies, and management. These backgrounds are reflected in the chapters.