DISAGGREGATING VISITOR FLOWS: THE EXAMPLE OF CHINA

Abstract

Fluctuations in visitor numbers occur at a variety of temporal scales and have theoretical and practical significance. China's international visitor arrivals were examined from 1980 to 1998, which was a period of strong growth. Tourism fluctuations were decomposed into trend and seasonal, cyclical and irregular fluctuations, and compared among themselves and for two market segments: Foreigners and Compatriots. The methods of analysis have wide applicability. In China's case, the importance of the trend and cyclical fluctuations is identified. Cyclical fluctuations appeared to be particularly associated with the economic and political situation in China.