Emerging issues in sales forecasting and decision support systems
Journal of the Academy of Marketing SciencePublished 1 September 1988
Essam Mahmoud, Gillian Rice, Naresh K. Malhotra
Citations22
SJR quartileQ1
SJR score6.90
SNIP4.39
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
Study Snapshot
ObjectiveStudy objective
MethodsResearch methodology
PopulationPopulation studied
Sample sizeSample sizes
OutcomesStudy outcomes here
ResultsStudy results comes here
LimitationsResearch study limitations comes here
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
TL;DR
The discussion of implementational issues includes some results of a survey of forecasting practice and serves as a preface to the special section on sales forecasting and decision support systems.
Abstract
There are two distinct groups of emerging issues in the area of sales forecasting and decision support systems: methodological issues and implementational issues. This paper discusses each of them. The discussion of implementational issues includes some results of a survey of forecasting practice. The paper serves as a preface to the special section on sales forecasting and decision support systems and introduces the papers included in the special section.
Keywords
Decision SciencesMathematics
Journal of ForecastingThe accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition
1,469 Citations1982Spyros Makridakis, A. Andersen +7 more
The results of a forecasting competition are presented to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.
Management ScienceAverages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results
626 Citations1983Spyros Makridakis, Robert L. Winkler
Management ScienceForecasting and Planning: An Evaluation
619 Citations1981Robin M. Hogarth, Spyros Makridakis
This paper explicitly recognizes the nature of F&P as future-oriented decision making activities and, as such, their dependence upon judgmental inputs and suggests reconceptualizing F &P through use of decision-theoretic concepts.
Journal of MarketingCommercial Use of Conjoint Analysis: A Survey
616 Citations1982Philippe C. Cattin, Dick R. Wittink
International Journal of ForecastingSales forecasting practices
277 Citations1987Douglas J. Dalrymple
The survey showed that subjective, extrapolation and naive techniques are widely used by American business firms in various forecasting situations and some business firms are reducing forecasting errors by making greater use of computers and seasonal adjustments.
Journal of ForecastingAccuracy in forecasting: A survey
237 Citations1984Essam Mahmoud
A brief and concise summary of empirical investigations pertaining to forecasting with special reference to the accuracy of different forecasting techniques, including studies seeking to test or improve accuracy by combining forecasting techniques.
Journal of ForecastingFamiliarity, application, and performance of sales forecasting techniques
211 Citations1984John T. Mentzer, James E. Cox
It was found that regression analysis, subjective techniques, exponential smoothing, and moving average were well known and used for specific situations and accuracy was relatively high for aggregate short range forecasts, but decreased for longer range and product level forecasts.
Management ScienceThe Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts
181 Citations1986Michael Lawrence, R. H. Edmundson +1 more
Combined forecasts are found to be more accurate than single forecasts with the greatest benefit realised at short forecast horizons and for easier as opposed to harder forecast series.
Management ScienceAggregating Subjective Forecasts: Some Empirical Results
162 Citations1985Alison Hubbard Ashton, Robert H. Ashton
Journal of Marketing ResearchMarket Response, Competitive Behavior, and Time Series Analysis
156 Citations1980Dominique M. Hanssens
Journal of Marketing ResearchOn the Prediction Power of Market Share Attraction Models
114 Citations1981Ph. Naert, Marcel Weverbergh
Journal of Marketing ResearchA Comparison of Market Share Models and Estimation Procedures
110 Citations1984Avijit Ghosh, Scott Neslin +1 more
The tests indicate that valid parameter estimates and similar forecasts are obtained with linear, multiplicative, and attraction models and better share forecasts generally are obtained from models with brand-specific parameterization and OLS estimation.
Journal of Marketing ResearchAttraction versus Linear and Multiplicative Market Share Models: An Empirical Evaluation
98 Citations1984Roderick J. Brodie, Cornelis A. de Kluyver
Journal of ForecastingAwareness and use of forecasting techniques in british industry
82 Citations1984John R. Sparkes, Andrew McHugh
International Journal of ForecastingForecasting methods for marketing
78 Citations1987J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie +1 more
Journal of Marketing ResearchSituational Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy
73 Citations1984Steven P. Schnaars
Forecasts generated by five popular extrapolations are compared with each other and with a random-walk model over nearly 1500 situations and found to be successful on nondurable goods and series that historically have exhibited stable patterns.
Journal of ForecastingAn exploration of some practical issues in the use of quantitative forecasting models
63 Citations1983Michael Lawrence
The evidence in Australia indicates that computer based forecasting systems are not being widely used and in fact a number of established systems have been discarded, with the issue of forecast accuracy often being mentioned as a problem area.
International Journal of ForecastingA comparison of the short term forecasting accuracy of econometric and naive extrapolation models of market share
63 Citations1987Roderick J. Brodie, Cornelis A. de Kluyver
International Journal of ForecastingBehavioral biases in new product forecasting
59 Citations1987Tyzoon T. Tyebjee
Management ScienceForecasting Applications of an Adaptive Multiple Exponential Smoothing Model
47 Citations1982Phillip G. Enns, Joseph A. Machak +2 more
Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters, including the full variance-covariance structure as well as the smoothing matrix, are provided, thus freeing the model user from the need for making ad hoc estimates of parameter values, a feature of simple univariate exponential smoothing.
Journal of Marketing ResearchManagement Judgment Forecasts, Composite Forecasting Models, and Conditional Efficiency
47 Citations1984Mark M. Moriarty, Arthur J. Adams
Journal of Marketing ResearchA Procedure for Measuring and Estimating Consumer Preferences under Uncertainty
44 Citations1983Imran S. Currim, Rakesh K. Sarin
Journal of ForecastingThe implementation of forecasting models
44 Citations1984Randall L. Schultz
Drawing conclusions about managing forecasting model implementation include better management support, closer links to management performance, improved user–preparer relationships, more goal congruence, minimized perception of change and an appropriate configuration of the forecasting system to user needs, style, resources and environment.
Management ScienceOn Combining Forecasts: Some Extensions and Results
43 Citations1985Anthony E. Bopp
This paper is about the motivation, methodology, and evaluation of combining the forecasts from two or more different models in a "combined" forecast.
Journal of Marketing ResearchDesign Features of Forecasting Systems Involving Management Judgments
42 Citations1985Mark M. Moriarty
International Journal of ForecastingEvaluation of forecasting methods for decision support
41 Citations1986David J. Wright, G. Capon +4 more
International Journal of ForecastingForecasting the effect of an environmental change on market performance
40 Citations1987Robert P. Leone
International Journal of ForecastingThe use of multiple scenarios in sales forecasting
38 Citations1987Steven P. Schnaars, Martin T. Topol
No support was found for the contention that scenarios improved upon ‘eyeball’ extrapolation or made judgmental sales forecasts more accurate than quantitative extrapolations, and scenarios were found to be tainted by many of the same biases previously identified by cognitive psychologists.
Journal of Marketing ResearchModeling and Forecasting Sales Data by Time Series Analysis
31 Citations1981Shiv G. Kapoor, P. Madhok +1 more
The analysis of actual sales data shows that the seasonality in the data can be approximated by a deterministic function and the stochastic component is a sixth-order autoregressive moving average model.
Journal of Marketing ResearchMarket Share Specification, Estimation, and Validation: Toward Reconciling Seemingly Divergent Views
31 Citations1985Philippe A. Naert, Marcel Weverbergh
Journal of Marketing ManagementLeisure Futures: A Summary of a Recent Study Commissioned by McCann‐Erickson Ltd from the Naisbitt Group<sup>1</sup>
30 Citations1987Christine Restall
Journal of ForecastingPractitioners' forum. Sales forecasting by forsys
26 Citations1982Rudolf Lewandowski
This paper describes a sales forecasting system widely used by European companies that includes several unique characteristics which increase its use and applicability among practitioners.
Journal of Consumer MarketingDECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS: ADVANTAGES IN CONSUMER MARKETING SETTINGS
25 Citations1986Martin D. Goslar, Stephen Brown
Decision Support Systems (DSS) enable marketing managers to integrate internal and external information environments within a decision‐making context and can provide marketing managers with opportunities to anticipate, identify, and creatively respond to changing consumer demand.
Journal of the Academy of Marketing ScienceForecasting with Adaptive Extended Exponential Smoothing
23 Citations1988John T. Mentzer
Journal of the Academy of Marketing ScienceA framework for the combination of forecasts
21 Citations1988Benito E. Flores, Edna M. White
International Journal of ForecastingCausal market share models in marketing
20 Citations1987Dick R. Wittink
Journal of Marketing ResearchForecasting with Diagonal Multiple Time Series Models: An Extension of Univariate Models
19 Citations1983Sushila Umashankar, Johannes Ledolter
The authors discuss a special case of multiple time series models in which the autoregressive and moving average parameter matrices are diagonal, called MTS-D, which are appropriate if the random shocks which drive the series are only contemporaneously correlated.
OmegaBehavioural aspects of marketing information systems
18 Citations1986David Jobber, Martin Watts
The paper provides an analysis of a wider number of factors which may be related to use than earlier studies, provides statistical support for a number of design issues, relates American findings to British experience and is based upon a larger and more comprehensive sample than previous research.
International Journal of ForecastingMisspecification and the inherent randomness of the model are at the heart of the Brodie and de Kluyver enigma
14 Citations1987Frank M. Bass
Journal of the Academy of Marketing ScienceDecision support oriented sales forecasting methods
11 Citations1988David J. Wright
International Journal of ForecastingConditions under which econometric models will outperform naive models
11 Citations1987Michael R. Hagerty
International Journal of ForecastingThe anatomy of a successful forecasting implementation
10 Citations1985Don Miller
The case is used to illustrate the application of principles for the implementation of forecasting systems, which include the needs to achieve sufficient levels of user involvement, top management support and education/training.
International Journal of ForecastingForecasting sales response for multiple time horizons and temporally aggregated data
8 Citations1987J. Thomas Yokum, Albert R. Wildt
International Journal of ForecastingSimple vs. complex extrapolation models
7 Citations1985Anne B. Koehler
This paper describes an empirical study of time series data for consumer products in the food processing industry at the stockkeeping unit level and shows that better fitting models do not, in general, give better forecasts.
Journal of ForecastingIntegrating time‐series and end‐use methods to forecast electricity sales
6 Citations1986Edward B. Fischler, Robert F. Nelson
Journal of ForecastingForecasting future canadian residential heating demand: An illustration of forecasting with aggregated and disaggregated data
5 Citations1984Michael K. Berkowitz, G. H. Haines
INFOR Information Systems and Operational ResearchThe Decision-Making Process Of Small Business For Microcomputers And Software Selection And Usage
4 Citations1986Essam Mahmoud, Naresh K. Malhotra
An empirical study of small businesses in five selected states finds that owners, managers, and users are most involved in the selection of microcomputers and software.
Journal of the Academy of Marketing ScienceExamining the effects of regression procedures on the temporal stability of parameter estimates in marketing models
2 Citations1988Zoher E. Shipchandler, J. Steven Moore
Journal of the Academy of Marketing ScienceThe impact of misrepresentative data patterns on sales forecasting accuracy
2 Citations1988Michael D. Geurts
Events and actions that may distort data used for sales forecasting are looked at and the resulting impact the events and actions may have on forecasting accuracy is looked at.