Forecasting retail sales using alternative models

Abstract

This paper explores the issues associated with adapting forecasting techniques used by manufacturers to produce accurate forecasts for retail sales. A case study is presented that is developed using a retail situation because retailers often view their sales forecasting problems as being very different from a manufacturer's problems. Sales volumes are dramatically impacted by competitor promotional actions, discounts, store promotions and weather. Finally, consumption holidays like Christmas, Easter, Mother's day, have a large impact on sales as well as back to school shopping. The findings in this paper indicate that forecasting retail sales can be accomplished with a high degree of accuracy.