Industry Export Performance: Assessment and Prediction

Abstract

Identification of industries with strong export potential is an increasingly important planning problem. This paper develops a measure of industry exports performance, investigates the determinants of export potential, and shows that reasonably accurate assessments of export potential can be made on the basis of easily accessible data, prior to actual entry to the field. The paper also compares the identified success determinants for Israeli exports to determinants of import size to the developed countries and U.S. international trade. It is shown that target-market import statistics are viable guidelines for export planning but only when used to supplement relative advantage considerations.