Scenarios

Abstract

Growing uncertainty about the future has caused private companies and government agencies to increasingly consider the use of scenarios as part of their planning and policy analysis. This paper describes reasons for using scenarios and describes what they are—and are not—and how they can be used in planning and policy analysis. A method for constructing internally consistent scenarios is presented with an example from a firm that manufactures and sells trucks in the United States and abroad. This case study describes the development of implications for the overall marketplace and for the corporate policies and strategies of the manufacturer. The author stresses that scenarios should not be viewed as forecast of what will be. Rather, they should be developed as a background for assessing and choosing alternative strategies in order to minimize risk.