Prediction of influenza incidence by using ARIMA
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TL;DR
ARIMA is a good tool for modeling and forecasting the incidence of ILI, it works well for short term prediction and was chosen as the optimal model.
Abstract
Aim To forecast the weekly influenza-like illness(ILI) rates by using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model(ARIMA)model.Methods ARIMA was created to model the variation of the weekly influenza-like illness rates from 2006 to 2008,the model diagnosis was performed using residual analysis.The predictive capacity of the ARIMA model was tested by forecasting the ILI rate in 2009 previously confirmed.Results The weekly influenza-like illness rates from 2006 to 2008 presented annual seasonality.ARIMA(1,0,0)×(1,1,0)was chosen as the optimal model,the relative prediction error were 14.2% 15.5% and 25.5% for 2006 ～2008,first half of 2009 and second half of 2009,respectively.Conclusion ARIMA is a good tool for modeling and forecasting the incidence of ILI%,it works well for short term prediction.