The Prediction of Educational Failure

Abstract

SUMMARY This paper investigates the possibility of an ‘early warning system’ for identifying children ‘At Risk’ of educational failure. Using data from the National Child Development Study, a national, longitudinal survey of about 16 000 children in Britain, we examined what characteristics could be used to predict at earlier stages children whose experience of the educational system would lead to their being classified as relative failures (as identified at 16 years). The paper uses, to this end, the technique of analysis of variance, and we reach the conclusion that relatively effective prediction of those ‘At Risk’ could be accomplished using quite simple criteria. The ones found in this study to be the most effective in predicting educational failure were in fact educational criteria themselves.