How Precise Are Evaluations of Employment and Training Programs

Both studies indicate that the nonexperimental methods may not accurately replicate the experimental estimates, and that recently developed methods for constructing comparison groups are no more likely to yield accurate estimates of the impact of training than the more conventional econometric procedures.

Abstract

This article summarizes the results from two studies that used experimental data to evaluate nonexperimental methods of program evaluation. These studies compared the experimental estimates—of an employment and training program that used random assignment to allocate its participants into training positions—to estimates from nonexperimental procedures. Both studies indicate that the nonexperimental methods may not accurately replicate the experimental estimates, and that recently developed methods for constructing comparison groups are no more likely to yield accurate estimates of the impact of training than the more conventional econometric procedures.