Developing realistic scenarios for the environment: Lessons from Brent Spar

Abstract

Why did Shell—renowned for its scenario planning—find itself so badly adrift with the Brent Spar? And why, later in 1995, was it wrong-footed again in Nigeria? The answers reflect deep currents already clear to the company's scenario writers in the 1980s, but retaining their ability to surprise. The authors conclude that Shell's scenarios have been ‘individualist’, ‘hierarchist’ or some combination of the two; none have adopted an ‘egalitarian perspective’. They also suggest that the ‘Values Shift’ scenario—developed for European Partners for the Environment—may hold clues to future shifts in business strategy.