Occupational Employment Projections to 2010.

Abstract

Daniel E. Hecker is an economist in the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. E-mail: [email protected] Total employment is projected to increase by 22.2 million jobs over the 2000–10 period, rising to 167.8 million, according to the latest projections of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This increase represents about a million more jobs than were added over the previous 10-year period (1990–2000). The projected 15.2-percent increase, however, is less than the 17.1-percent increase of the previous 10-year period. Self employed is projected to grow from 11.5 to 11.7 million, or 1.7 percent. The economy will continue generating jobs for workers at all levels of education and training, although growth rates are projected to be faster, on average, for occupations generally requiring a postsecondary award (a vocational certificate or other award or an associate or higher degree), than for occupations requiring less education or training. Most new jobs, however, will arise in occupations that require only workrelated training (on-the-job training or work experience in a related occupation), even though these occupations are projected to grow more slowly, on average. This reflects the fact that these occupations accounted for about 7 out of 10 jobs in 2000. This article discusses a number of aspects of the 2000–2010 projections along with related information: • changes in the structure of employment at the major occupational group level; • the detailed occupations that are projected to grow fastest as well as those with the largest numerical increases and decreases, along with their current educational or training requirements and earnings; • the total job openings projected to occur due to growth in the economy and the net replacement needs resulting from workers who leave the labor force or transfer to other occupations; and • the distribution of employment in 2000 and projected 2000–10 job openings by level of education or training.