The Cascade GIS Diffusion Model for Measuring Housing Absorption by Small Area with a Case Study of St. Lucie County, Florida

Abstract

The geographer's spatial diffusion theory is combined with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology to provide a new framework for predicting residential single-family development patterns. We refer to the model as a multiple-stage "Cascade" GIS diffusion model. Parameter calibration is done using two-stage least squares. The model predicts new housing built and purchased by small submarket. Our example submarket is at the census tract level; a smaller submarket could have been chosen. The contribution to housing forecasting literature is a structural model that captures the spatial diffusion process at various geographical scales. Model estimation and forecasts are facilitated using GIS technology via a high resolution and high precision database using county property tax rolls.