Subjective Estimates of Occupancy Forecast Uncertainty by Hotel Revenue Managers

Abstract

Abstract Fifty-seven experienced hotel revenue managers participated in a study involving the use of simulated forecasting software. The revenue managers examined raw occupancy data and used simulated forecasting software to arrive at their own daily occupancy forecasts and subjective estimates of the forecast uncertainty for a period of seven consecutive days. The study underscores the subjective nature of forecast uncertainty, showing that uncertainty estimates depend on the individual's years of industry experience as well as gender. The study demonstrates that there is no relation between the accuracy of a point estimate and the level of subjective uncertainty. It further shows that external factors that had affected point estimates had no impact on the level of subjective estimates of uncertainty.