Potential Changes in Tropical Storms, Hurricanes, and Extreme Rainfall Events as a Result of Climate Change

Abstract

Our current understanding of the ability of climate models to provide insight into the possible impacts of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the climatology of tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall events is reviewed. At present, because of the insufficient resolution of climate models and their generally crude representation of sub-gridscale and convective processes, little confidence can be placed in any definite predictions of such effects, although a tendency for more heavy rainfall events seems likely, and a modest increase in tropical cyclone intensities is possible. In the view of the authors, it would be unwise to exclude substantial local changes in the climatologies of these phenomena, especially at a regional (sub-continental) scale.