The emergence of an electric mobility trajectory

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the emergence of a trajectory of electric mobility. We describe developments in electric vehicles before and after 2005. The central thesis of the paper is that electric mobility has crossed a critical threshold and is benefiting from various developments whose influence can be expected to grow in importance: high oil prices, carbon constraints, and rise of organised car sharing and intermodality. We find that the development of vehicle engine technology depends on changes in (fueling) infrastructure, changes in mobility, changes in the global car market, evolution of energy prices, climate policy, and changes in the electricity sector. Special attention is given to interaction of technological alternatives: how these work out for the future of battery electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.