Earthquake prediction - a statistician's view.

Abstract

Short or medium-term risk forecasts are suggested as an alternative to presenting earthquake predictions as such. Methods for calculating such forecasts are discussed, and illustrated with reference to Kawasumi's periodicity data. It is suggested that the primary responsibility for earthquake insurance should rest with a State Earthquake Insurance Commission, which would also have responsibility for accumulating, assessing, and disseminating information on earthquake risks and methods of hazard reduction.