Odds Versus Probabilities for Categorical Events.
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Abstract
Fifty subjects provided a test to determine, in a static situation, whether odds are more extreme than probabilities. Analysis of the data indicated that given the subject group and the type of questions used there was a significant difference between the two modes of assessments, odds giving the more extreme values. However, this difference was small and largely accounted for by the coarseness of the first two points on the odds scale, 1:1 and 2:1. Judging by the proportion of times subjects correctly identified the correct event, they were too extreme in their probability and odds assessments.