Foundations of Risk Measurement. I. Risk As Probable Loss

Abstract

This paper seeks to get behind specific contextual referents of risky situations to consider characteristics of risk that apply to many situations. It is guided by previous theoretical and empirical research in perceived risk, and focuses on the joint effects on risk of loss probability and the distribution of losses. The approach taken follows modern axiomatic theory by proposing conditions on a relation “is at least as risky as” between pairs of probability distributions over an outcome variable. Several sets of axioms for risk that characterize different forms for risk measurement are presented.