Judgmental probability forecasting in the immediate and medium term

Abstract

This study investigates judgmental probability forecasting of nonpersonal events in the immediate and medium term. Forecasts for desirable events were found to be better calibrated and less overconfident in the immediate term than the medium term. Implications for decision analysis practice are discussed. In addition, forecasting responses and performance showed strong relative individual consistency across forecasting periods, indicating that it may well be possible to select good all-round forecasters. Finally, the relationship of coherence in forecasting response to subsequent forecasting performance is analyzed and discussed.