Design and implementation of fuzzy expert system for Tehran Stock Exchange portfolio recommendation

A fuzzy expert system for selecting superior stocks in order to encounter the uncertainty of stock portfolio recommendation is developed and the recommendation rules which experts at Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) use for portfolio recommendation are modeled.

Abstract

The key issue for decision making in stock trading is selection of the right stock at the right time. In order to select the superior stocks (alternatives) for investment, a finite number of alternatives have to be ranked considering several and sometimes conflicting criteria that often are vague and have uncertainty conditions. Therefore, we are faced with a special Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem. The purpose of this paper is to develop a fuzzy expert system for selecting superior stocks in order to encounter the uncertainty of stock portfolio recommendation and model the recommendation rules which experts at Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) use for portfolio recommendation. The results of implementing the designed fuzzy expert system at TSE were affirmative.