A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century
New England Journal of MedicinePublished 17 March 2005Open access
S. Jay Olshansky, Francesca Racioppi, Ronald C. Hershow, Jennifer E. Layden, Bruce A. Carnes, Jacob A. Brody
Citations2,500
SJR quartileQ1
SJR score19.08
SNIP13.47
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TL;DR
From an analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, it is concluded that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.
Abstract
Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.
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