Trends and Forecasts for Inbound Tourism to China

Abstract

Summary The development of tourism in China over the last two decades is reviewed. It is argued that the success of the economic reforms in China which has resulted in fast economic growth has also been the main cause of rapid tourism growth in China. Forecasts of international tourist arrivals by source country market and destination region within China are generated over the period 2001-05. An integrative approach is used which combines both time-series and econometric methodologies, termed structural integrated time-series econometric analysis (SITEA).