On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts
National Bureau of Economic ResearchPublished 1 January 1978Open access
Victor Zarnowitz
Citations22
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
Study Snapshot
ObjectiveStudy objective
MethodsResearch methodology
PopulationPopulation studied
Sample sizeSample sizes
OutcomesStudy outcomes here
ResultsStudy results comes here
LimitationsResearch study limitations comes here
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
Abstract
The aim of this study is to contribute to the measurement and analysis of errors in economists' predictions of changes in aggregate income, output, and. the prIce level. n11 sample studies of forecasts can be instructive, it their limitations must be recognized. Compilation of consistent forecast records extending over longer periods of tine is necessary to establish a reasonably reliable base for assessments of forecasting behavior and. performance. Thus the historical record of post-World War II forecasts assembled in the 1960's by the NB is here extended and updated.
Keywords
Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationForecasting Short-Term Economic Change
27 Citations1969Geoffrey H. Moore
Journal of money credit and bankingTowards a Reconstruction of Macroeconomics.
9 Citations1978Paul Davidson, William Fellner