Perceived Uncertainty: Conceptual Frameworks and Research Instruments.

Abstract

This paper attempts to provide a framework for future research on one of the central concepts of contingency theories―uncertainty. After reviewing earlier attempts at defining uncertainty, it offers explicit views of man and environments to guide the reader in the development of the conceptualization and definition of uncertainty as a psychological state of the individual. This concept of uncertainty is used to suggest four sources of variability in the perception of uncertainty by individuals: (1) the perception of stability and simplicity in an environment, (2) individual cognitive processes, (3) the variety of an individual's experience, and (4) social expectations of the perception of uncertainty. The paper makes suggestions, based on the concepts presented, for future research concerning uncertainty. These include strategies for methodological testing of uncertainty instruments and explorations of the role of individual characteristics in the perception of uncertainty.