Commentary on “Judgment Based Marketing Decision Models”

A number of conclusions about judgment based models that agree with field experience are drawn, however, it is questioned whether their experiments form an adequate basis for ascribing negative effects to decision calculus models.

Abstract

Chakravarti, Mitchell, and Staelin (CMS) draw a number of conclusions about judgment based models that agree with our field experience. However, we question whether their experiments form an adequate basis for ascribing negative effects to decision calculus models. A key part of the laboratory task is to estimate five model parameters, given between six and 18 observations of a share-advertising time series and no further market information. By contrast, in our field experience a major advantage of decision calculus models is that managers base their calibrations on multiple information sources and detailed knowledge of market and consumer behavior.