The effect of recreation supply on participation

Abstract

A recurring theme in outdoor recreation research is the need to develop models to forecast future use levels of facilities. Most aggregate demand models relate use to socioeconomic characteristics of potential user populations. The models are usually calibrated with actual participation data without considering the effect of supply on participation. A weakness in these is that observed use levels are not just the result of demand but also of supply. This paper presents a behaviorally based approach to the measurement of the effects of supply on participation. Data were obtained from a random national sample of over twenty‐five thousand people. The supply effects found are very statistically significant. The magnitudes of the supply factors show that the regional variations of supply must be included in demand models if they are to provide accurate forecasts for large geographic areas.