Psychological Science Can Improve Diagnostic Decisions
Gothic.netPublished 1 May 2000
John A. Swets, Robyn M. Dawes, John Monahan
Citations864
Generate an AI Snapshot to get a quick, structured summary of this paper.
Study Snapshot
ObjectiveStudy objective
MethodsResearch methodology
PopulationPopulation studied
Sample sizeSample sizes
OutcomesStudy outcomes here
ResultsStudy results comes here
LimitationsResearch study limitations comes here
A concise AI-generated summary of the paper will appear here once you click Generate AI Snapshot.
Abstract
John A. Swets, Robyn M. Dawes, and John Monahan BBN Technologies (emeritus), Cambridge, Massachusetts; Radiology Department, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and School of Law, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia
Keywords
Decision SciencesMedicine
ScienceMeasuring the Accuracy of Diagnostic Systems
10,020 Citations1988John A. Swets
For diagnostic systems used to distinguish between two classes of events, analysis in terms of the "relative operating characteristic" of signal detection theory provides a precise and valid measure of diagnostic accuracy.
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics eBooksThe Jackknife, the Bootstrap and Other Resampling Plans
7,903 Citations1982Bradley Efron
RePEc: Research Papers in EconomicsSimple Heuristics That Make Us Smart
3,159 Citations1999Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter M. Todd
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of LondonLII. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, F. R. S. communicated by Mr. Price, in a letter to John Canton, A. M. F. R. S
2,873 Citations1763Thomas Bayes
American PsychologistThe robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making.
1,972 Citations1979Robyn M. Dawes
Operations ResearchClinical Decision Analysis
1,422 Citations1980Baruch Fischhoff
It is hoped that by considering the issues that a related profession has identified, the approaches it has developed to study those issues, and the (partial) conclusions it has reached, this work can facilitate the development of decision analysis.
Psychology Public Policy and LawComparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical–statistical controversy.
1,409 Citations1996William M. Grove, Paul E. Meehl
JAMACombination of Prostate-Specific Antigen, Clinical Stage, and Gleason Score to Predict Pathological Stage of Localized Prostate Cancer
1,212 Citations1997Alan W. Partin
Clinicians can use these nomograms when counseling individual patients regarding the probability of their tumor being a specific pathological stage to enable patients and physicians to make more informed treatment decisions based on the probabilities of a pathological stage, as well as risk tolerance and the values they place on various potential outcomes.
Neural ComputationNeural Network Classifiers Estimate Bayesian <i>a posteriori</i> Probabilities
993 Citations1991Michael D. Richard, Richard P. Lippmann
Results of Monte Carlo simulations performed using multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks trained with backpropagation, radial basis function (RBF) networks, and high-order polynomial networks graphically demonstrate that network outputs provide good estimates of Bayesian probabilities.
Criminal Justice and BehaviorViolent Recidivism of Mentally Disordered Offenders
990 Citations1993Grant T. Harris, Marnie E. Rice +1 more
Transactions of the IRE Professional Group on Information TheoryThe theory of signal detectability
868 Citations1954William Peterson, Theodore G. Birdsall +1 more
Seven special cases which are presented were chosen from the simplest problems in signal detection which closely represent practical situations and should serve to suggest methods for attacking other simple signal detection problems and to give insight into problems too complicated to allow a direct solution.
Medical Entomology and ZoologySignal Detection Theory and ROC Analysis in Psychology and Diagnostics: Collected Papers
784 Citations1996John A. Swets
The Relative Operating Characteristic in Psychology is studied as a form of Empirical ROCs in Discrimination and Diagnostic Tasks and Applications in Various Diagnostic Fields.
Legal and Criminological PsychologyPsychopathy and recidivism: A review
766 Citations1998James F. Hemphill, Robert D. Hare +1 more
Choice Reviews OnlineA Handbook for data analysis in the behavioral sciences: methodological issues
545 Citations1993
This book discusses methodological and statistical issues surrounding the development of Mathematical Models in Psychology, as well as some of the techniques used in Bayesian Statistics, a branch of statistics based on Bayesian inference.
Journal of Consulting and Clinical PsychologyViolent recidivism: Assessing predictive validity.
538 Citations1995Marnie E. Rice, Grant T. Harris
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D (The Statistician)Multidimensional Scaling: History, Theory and Applications.
470 Citations1988Norman Pigden, Forrest W. Young +1 more
JAMAThe Accuracy of Predictions of Violence to Others
466 Citations1993Charles W. Lidz
The level of patient violence reported using self-reports and collateral reports was higher than has been obtained using other methods, and clinical judgment adds to predictive accuracy, but overall accuracy was modest and particularly low for female patients.
Law and Human BehaviorA classification tree approach to the development of actuarial violence risk assessment tools.
395 Citations2000Henry J. Steadman, Eric Silver +7 more
This work proposes a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach for actuarial violence risk assessment tools, and suggests that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases, the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced.
New England Journal of MedicinePerformance of Four Computer-Based Diagnostic Systems
326 Citations1994Eta S. Berner, George D. Webster +12 more
A profile of the strengths and limitations of the diagnostic capabilities of four internal medicine diagnostic systems: Dxplain, Iliad, Meditel, and QMR is provided.
Medical Decision MakingThe Robustness of the "Binormal" Assumptions Used in Fitting ROC Curves
313 Citations1988James A. Hanley
The binormal form is the most common model used to formally fit ROC curves to the data from signal detection studies that employ the "rating" method, but the small lack of fit is unlikely to be demonstrated in practice, and the small number of rating categories used does not permit seemingly very different models to be distinguished from one another.
RadiologyDetection of extracapsular extension of prostate carcinoma with endorectal and phased-array coil MR imaging: multivariate feature analysis.
291 Citations1997Kyle K. Yu, Hedvig Hricak +4 more
Obliteration of the rectoprostatic angle and asymmetry of the neurovascular bundle were most indicative of extracapsular extension in prostate MR images.
RadiologyImprovement of Radiologists' Characterization of Mammographic Masses by Using Computer-aided Diagnosis: An ROC Study
243 Citations1999Heang‐Ping Chan, Berkman Sahiner +8 more
CAD may be useful for assisting radiologists in classification of masses and thereby potentially help reduce unnecessary biopsies, as predicted from the improved ROC curves.
Journal of the American Statistical AssociationCross-Validation, the Jackknife, and the Bootstrap: Excess Error Estimation in Forward Logistic Regression
236 Citations1986Gail Gong
Three estimates of the excess error are considered: cross-validation, the jackknife, and the bootstrap, for a moderately complicated prediction rule, involving a variable-selection procedure based on forward logistic regression.
CHANCEBordeaux Wine Vintage Quality and the Weather
224 Citations1995Orley Ashenfelter, David Ashmore +1 more
It is shown that the quality of the vintage for red Bordeaux wines, as judged by the prices of mature wines, can be predicted by the weather during the growing season that produced the wines.
RadiologyMalignant and benign clustered microcalcifications: automated feature analysis and classification.
206 Citations1996Yongbing Jiang, Robert M. Nishikawa +6 more
Quantitative features can be extracted and analyzed by a computer to distinguish malignant from benign clustered microcalcifications and this technique may help radiologists reduce the number of false-positive biopsy findings.
New England Journal of MedicineScreening for HIV: Can We Afford the False Positive Rate?
199 Citations1987Klemens B. Meyer, Stephen G. Pauker
A mobile phone app may be a viable option to diagnose and treat acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in patients without resorting to traditional methods, such as chemotherapy and radiation therapy.
American PsychologistThe science of choosing the right decision threshold in high-stakes diagnostics.
183 Citations1992John A. Swets
International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal ProcessingA probabilistic approach to the understanding and training of neural network classifiers
173 Citations2002H. Gish
It is shown that training a neural network using a mean-square-error criterion gives network outputs that approximate posterior class probabilities and information-theoretic training criteria such as maximum mutual information and the Kullback-Liebler measure are investigated.
Investigative RadiologyEnhanced Interpretation of Diagnostic Images
166 Citations1988David J. Getty, Ronald M. Pickett +2 more
Demonstration is given here, in the context of mammography, that objective aids to this interpretative process can substantially improve accuracy, even for sophisticated and motivated radiologists.
The Journal of the Acoustical Society of AmericaObjective and subjective evaluations of twenty-three opera houses in Europe, Japan, and the Americas
119 Citations2000Takayuki Hidaka, Leo L. Beranek
The room acoustical parameters, reverberation time RT, early decay time EDT, clarity factor C80, bass ratio BR, strength G, interaural cross-correlation coefficient IACC, and initial-time-delay gap ITDG, were measured in 23 major opera houses under unoccupied conditions in 11 countries.
Medical Decision MakingEnhancing and Evaluating Diagnostic Accuracy
113 Citations1991John A. Swets, David J. Getty +4 more
Techniques that may enhance diagnostic accuracy in clinical settings were tested in the context of mammography, finding that measured accuracy can depend on case-set difficulty to different degrees for two diagnostic approaches has general implications for evaluation in clinical medicine.
Psychological AssessmentAssessing the risk of violence in released mental patients: A cross-validation study.
111 Citations1989Deidre Klassen, William A. O’Connor
A statistical scale to assess the probability of violence in released mental patients was developed and cross-validated and used to predict subsequent violent arrests or readmissions during a 1-year follow-up period with multiple regression.
Seminars in RoentgenologyMammographic feature analysis
96 Citations1993Carl J. D’Orsi, Daniel B. Kopans
PubMedUsing classification tree and logistic regression methods to diagnose myocardial infarction.
91 Citations1998Christine L. Tsien, Hamish Fraser +2 more
JAMAHuman Immunodeficiency Virus Test Evaluation, Performance, and Use
86 Citations1988J. Sanford Schwartz
Current test performance could be improved by better standardization of test procedures and institution of mandatory proficiency testing and licensing of clinical laboratories that perform HIV testing, and test utility could be enhanced by sequencing tests more appropriately and by interpreting test results in conjunction with the clinical purpose for which the test is being used and the characteristics of the population under study.
New England Journal of MedicineA Report Card on Computer-Assisted Diagnosis -- The Grade: C
80 Citations1994Jerome P. Kassirer
This issue of the Journal contains a comparison of four commercially available computer programs designed to diagnose diseases that internists might encounter, finding that all the programs performed equally well.
RadiologyPredicting breast cancer invasion with artificial neural networks on the basis of mammographic features.
78 Citations1997Joseph Y. Lo, Jay A. Baker +3 more
The ANN used mammographic features and patient age to accurately classify invasion among breast cancers, information that was previously available only by means of biopsy, and may assist in surgical planning and may help reduce the cost and morbidity of unnecessary biopsy.
RadiologyStaging prostate cancer with MR imaging: a combined radiologist-computer system.
72 Citations1997S E Seltzer, David J. Getty +5 more
A combined radiologist-computer system substantially improved accuracy of body MR radiologists in the diagnosis of prostate cancer.
New England Journal of MedicineHIV Testing is the Answer — What's the Question?
58 Citations1988Robin A. Weiss, Samuel O. Thier
There is reason for concern about the false positive rate in testing for antibody to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), even when the specificity of a test is high, some persons who are truly without disease will nevertheless test positive.
Journal of Clinical MicrobiologySignificance of quantitative enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) results in evaluation of three ELISAs and Western blot tests for detection of antibodies to human immunodeficiency virus in a high-risk population
49 Citations1987P Nishanian, John M. Taylor +4 more
A higher than normal proportion of specimens with high negative optical densities by GS ELISA and also negative by WB were found to be from individuals in the process of seroconversion, and designation of a specimen with a single ELISA quantitative level near the cutoff value as positive or negative should be viewed with skepticism.
ScienceBenefits and Costs of HIV testing
43 Citations1991David E. Bloom, Sherry Glied
The results reveal that HIV testing is clearly not cost-beneficial for most firms, although the benefits of HIV testing may outweigh the costs for some large firms that offer generous fringe-benefit packages and that recruit workers from populations in which the prevalence of HIV infection is high.
RadiologyProstate cancer: relative effects of demographic, clinical, histologic, and MR imaging variables on the accuracy of staging.
26 Citations1997David J. Getty, S E Seltzer +4 more
Optimal merging of diagnostic test results yields an improvement in the accuracy of prostate cancer staging, with an increase in accuracy from 0.55 to 0.73.
International Statistical ReviewStatistical Models for Nondestructive Evaluation
15 Citations1995Trevor J. Sweeting
Proceedings of SPIE, the International Society for Optical Engineering/Proceedings of SPIE<title>Indices of performance</title>
2 Citations1994Seán Hammond, Ian Davies
The relative value of a number of commonly used performance indices in breast cancer screening by mammography are explored and two indices emerge with properties that make them particularly useful for mammography screening.