In search of useful theory of innovation

Abstract

This essay presents an overview of selected aspects of prevailing theoretical understanding of innovation, and attempts to sketch some directions that would seem fruitful to follow if we are to achieve a theoretical structure that can be helpful in guiding thinking about policy. We are using the term innovation as a portmanteau to cover the wide range of variegated processes by which man’s technologies evolve over time. By a theory we mean a reasonable coherent intellectual framework which integrates existing knowledge, and enables predictions to go beyond the particulars of what actually has been observed. It seems apparent that if scholarly knowledge is to be helpful to deliberation about policy directions, theory must be wide enough to encompass and link the relevant variables and their effects, and strong enough to give guidance as to what would happen if some of these variables changed.