Conservation tillage: An analysis of acreage projections in the United States

Abstract

Projections of conservation tillage adoption in the United States can vary greatly and mislead readers when different projections are compared using the various definitions of conservation tillage. Past projections of conservation tillage adoption are briefly reviewed herein. Also discussed is the definition used by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in its 1975 projection and how the definition has changed. Previous Soil Conservation Service acreage estimates of conservation tillage, beginning in 1968, are discounted in an attempt to better reflect today's definition. The 1968 discounted figure is then used in an S-shaped adoption curve, under given assumptions, to make an upper and lower projection of conservation tillage. This projection indicates that conservation tillage may be adopted on 63% to 82% of the total planted cropland acres by the year 2010.