"The future ain't what it used to be": Coping with Change, Turbulence and Disasters in Tourism Research and Destination Management

Abstract

This paper is a synthesis of a range of contributions by the author (with others) to books,
\nacademic journals and conference proceedings over the last decade that have focused on
\nissues relating to tourism forecasting, turbulence, entrepreneurism and disaster
\nmanagement. Specifically, the title is inspired by an earlier paper (Faulkner, 1993),
\nelements of which are included in section 2. Section 2 also draws on Faulkner and
\nValerio (1995), in which the potential relevance of insights from Chaos Theory and the
\nrelated complexity perspective to elements of tourism forecasting was first canvassed.
\nSection 3 uses material from Faulkner and Russell (1997), while section 4 draws on
\nRussell and Faulkner (1999) and Faulkner and Russell (2000). I am indebted to Ros
\nRussell for the enthusiasm with which she has joined me in exploring applications of
\nChaos Theory to tourism research and, in particular, for her contribution to the
\nexamination of entrepreneurial behaviour. In the preparation of this paper, I am also
\nindebted to Noel Scott, who has added a new dimension to the Chaos/Complexity
\nperspective through his examination of innovative consumers. Finally, sections 5, 6 and 7
\nwere based Faulkner (2001) and Faulkner and Vikulov (2001).