Cliometric metatheory : the actuarial approach to empirical, history-based philosophy of science

Abstract

Metatheory is the empirical theory of scientific theorizing. Its descriptive data base is scientific practice, history of science, and the facts of human cognition and communication. «Scientific method» is a loose set of principles (guidelines, policies, rules of thumb, helpful hints, preferences) plus a few strict rules. The analytical and prescriptive functions of metatheory try to explain scientific success and failure and to justify (rationalize) the principles as conducive to science's epistemic aims, employing the findings of behavioral science, probability theory, formal logic, and armchair epistemology as explanatory tools and constructs. Because the several methodological principles are incommensurable and their relation to our epistemic goal stochastic, metatheoretical research should supplement case studies with explicitly acturial methods, sampling episodes from history of science and subjecting them to formal psychometric treatment. Psychologists' mental habits and quantitative skills should enable us to take the lead in developing cliometric metatheory as a new discipline