Effects of improved information on the components of skill in weather forecasting

Abstract

The relation between the amount and quality of information available to meteorologists and the accuracy of their forecasts of a highly uncertain event (severe weather) was investigated. In three studies, meteorologists made forecasts under a total of four different information conditions. Forecast accuracy was low, and as the amount and quality of the information increased substantially, there was a modest increase in the accuracy of forecasts. The results suggest that subjective factors, particularly the reliability of forecasts, deteriorated with additional information.