AIDS Impact Assessment: Modelling and Scenario Analysis

The sociocultural and economic impact of AIDS on society: outline of the Dutch scenario project and the contribution from social sciences, and a family of models for analysis and evaluation of strategies for preventing AIDS.

Abstract

List of contributors. List of workshop participants. Introduction (J.C. Jager, F.M.L.G. van den Boom, L.H. Lumey and E.J. Ruitenberg). PART I. Quality of AIDS/HIV Prevalence Data Used in Models. 1. United States data for monitoring the HIV epidemic: issues and caveats (T.J. Dondero and R.W. Wilson). 2. European HIV database (G. Lavoie, L.H. Lumey, E. Couturier, S. van der Fuhr, J.-B. Brunet and R.A. Ancelle-Park). 3. Operational modelling of HIV/AIDS to assist public health policy-making and control (N.T.J. Bailey). 4. Current United Kingdom AIDS data and proposed programme to monitor the prevalence of HIV (O.N. Gil and H.E. Tillett). 5. MIDAS: a PC-program for adjusting reported AIDS data and short term projections (S.H. Heisterkamp, A.M. Downs and M.J.J.C. Poos). PART II. Scope and Application of Models. 6. Modelling the incidence of AIDS in Amsterdam (M.J.W. van de Laar and J. Pickering). 7. An example of the use of the basic reproduction ratio R o in scenario analysis (J.A.P. Heesterbeek). 8. HIV epidemics in linked risk groups: a move to exploratory scenario analysis (J.A.M. van Druten, M.J.J.C. Poos, J. Hendriks and J.C. Jager). 9. An age structured model for HIV transmission (B.J. de Haan and M.G.W. Dijkgraaf). 10. Identification of some important factors in modelling the spread of AIDS (J.D. Griffiths and J.E. Williams). 11. A family of models for analysis and evaluation of strategies for preventing AIDS (M. Lagergren). PART III. Linking Models with Sociological Information. 12. Resilience of reality: fundamental dilemmas in sex research (P. Schnabel and F.M.L.G. van den Boom). 13. Human Immunodeficiency Virus infection and AIDS: concepts and constructs (N. Gilmore). 14. Behavioural data and models of the AIDS epidemic (J.L. Aron and E.P. Wileyto). 15. Heterogeneous mixing models: homosexual role separation and consistency over time (G.J. van Zessen and G.J.P. van Griensven). 16. HIV prevalence in big cities and its social consequences: a scenario-approach with the help of the cross-impact-matrix (M. Beckmann). 17. The sociocultural and economic impact of AIDS on society: outline of the Dutch scenario project and the contribution from social sciences (D.P. Reinking, F.M.L.G. van de Boom, M.J. Postma and J.C. Jager). 18. Computer-based teaching in AIDS epidemiology: the individual and the public aspect (J.J. Gonzalez, M. Myrtveit and L. Vavik). PART IV. Linking Models with Economic Information. 19. Economic analysis and decision-making: maximizing the impact (M. Duckett). 20. Construction of socioeconomic impact scenarios based on routine AIDS surveillance data (R. Leidl, M.J. Postma, M.J.J.C. Poos, B. Majnoni d'Intignano, J.C. Jager and A.E. Baert). 21. The costs of HIV in The Netherlands in 1989: a preliminary estimate (C.C.M.C. Wiggers and E.W. Bergsma). 22. A relational database management system: monitoring hospital activities, costs of care and quality of life related to AIDS and other HIV infection (M.G.W. Dijkgraaf, J.Th.L.