Slow rock fracture as eruption precursor at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Abstract

Breakout of magmatic activity at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, was preceded by a tenfold increase in rate of earthquake occurrence. A new model of subcritical rock failure shows that this increase is consistent with the growth, possibly episodic, of the magma conduit at a rate controlled by progressive weakening of the host country rock. The preferred weakening mechanism is stress corrosion, by which circulating juvenile and hydrothermal fluids chemically attack the country rock and promote failure at stresses smaller than the rock's theoretical strength. The results illuminate the potential for slow‐cracking models to enhance eruption forecasts using the inverse‐rate technique combined with traditional monitoring methods.