A theory of technological progress

This theory starts by establishing a hierarchy of artifacts and classifying them in a simple scheme and explains the growth of a new artifact in the absence of substantial competition and the substitution of one artifact technology for another.

Abstract

A theory of the development of artifacts and their technologies is presented. This theory starts by establishing a hierarchy of artifacts and classifying them in a simple scheme. Then the growth of a new artifact in the absence of substantial competition is modeled and illustrated with realistic examples. The model is further developed to explain the substitution of one artifact technology for another. It is shown that substitution is a special case in a more general theory which is necessary when an attacker has a performance advantage over the defender as is usually the case. This is quantified in several real instances. Finally the important role of stochastic events is shown by defining five categories and some of their known effects.