Fast and frugal forecasting

Evidence is provided that some of the fast and frugal heuristics that people use intuitively are able to make forecasts that are as good as or better than those of knowledge-intensive procedures.

Abstract

Simple statistical forecasting rules, which are usually simplifications of classical models, have been shown to make better predictions than more complex rules, especially when the future values of a criterion are highly uncertain. In this article, we provide evidence that some of the fast and frugal heuristics that people use intuitively are able to make forecasts that are as good as or better than those of knowledge-intensive procedures. We draw from research on the adaptive toolbox and ecological rationality to demonstrate the power of using intuitive heuristics for forecasting in various domains including sport, business, and crime.