The psychology of forecasting
FuturesPublished 1 June 1986
George Wright, Peter Ayton
Citations30
SJR quartileQ1
SJR score1.12
SNIP1.61
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Abstract
Abstract This article reviews research on the elicitation of consistent, coherent and valid probability forecasts. From this a general model of the judgemental forecasting process is developed showing the interdependence of consistency, coherence and validity. The authors describe a forecasting aid which elicits consistent and coherent forecasts and argue that research should now focus on the validity of judgemental forecasting by attempting to identify the characteristics of those individuals who can produce valid judgements.
Keywords
Computer ScienceDecision Sciences
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