Searching for a Cyprus Settlement: Considering Options for Creating a Federation, a Confederation, or Two Independent States

Abstract

Greek and Turkish Cypriote have had a poor record in managing their political differences. The bicommunal government established at independence in 1960 at the behest of Greece and Turkey proved a failure after three years. Its collapse triggered communal violence. No Cypriot government has represented both communities since then, and the partition on the island has hardened. Considerable third-party mediation, spanning a few decades, has failed to find a compromise settlement. Neither a federation nor a confederation appears to have reasonable prospects of success in view of the deep mistrust between Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Moreover, it is doubtful whether European Union membership of Cyprus could provide a sufficient framework for resolving the island's enduring communal dispute. Consequently, the merits of a two-state solution deserve serious consideration.