ACCURACY OF JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING OF TIME SERIES
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TL;DR
Experiments contrasted judgmental and objective forecast methods, finding that objective methods proved more accurate than eyeball extrapolation, but judgmental adjustment improved the accuracy of some objective forecasts.
Abstract
ABSTRACT Experiments contrasted judgmental and objective forecast methods. Judgmental methods included “eyeball” extrapolation of time‐series plots and judgmental adjustment. Objective methods included Box‐Jenkins (BJ), Carbone‐Longini AEP filtering (CL), Holt‐Winters (HW), and other smoothing techniques. Objective methods proved more accurate than eyeball extrapolation. However, judgmental adjustment improved the accuracy of some objective forecasts.