Abstract

Sports events can provide helpful models for thinking about social processes. DiMaggio's hitting streak in baseball, for example, raises serious questions about how the causes of relatively uncommon social events are typically studied. The hitting streak also directs our attention to considering models that generate a distribution of outcomes in a population of social units. The series of games leading to a football championship is relevant for approaching the role of complex chains of events in leading to a given outcome (where each individual sequence itself has a low probability of occurring). A model of changing templates suggests a more realistic way of thinking about the linkages over time from an initial starting point to a given outcome. Another sports example, based on the application of a binomial model to the outcome of a series of games, suggests that we should think of "chance" as a dependent variable that is influenced by—among other factors—the nature of the social structure. Also examined are the special problems in "explaining" any specific outcome.