Looking across rather than up and down: On the need to explore the lateral processing of information

Abstract

Changing societal values and emerging new technologies are increasing the probability of massive shifts in transport service offerings in coming decades, with potentially huge benefits and/or costs. Autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) have been the main focus of this discussion internationally and form a key element in the current chapter. The chapter explores socio-economic trends and their interaction with new technologies, largely by developing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios about how the future of land passenger transport might emerge in coming years. In particular, the chapter discusses how Mobility-as-a-Service and AEVs might impact public transport service provision, distinguishing between trunk and local service offerings. It suggests that trunk public transport services will remain important components of urban passenger transport networks, because of the wider economic benefits that these services release, particularly in bigger cities. Concerns are expressed, however, about low volume local public transport services, the main value from which is social inclusion. Policy measures to help ensure that emerging transport technologies are net contributors to social welfare are outlined, including transport pricing reform, urban land use/transport planning to promote more compact towns and cities and to slow urban sprawl, together with shared mobility contracts to support social inclusion from local transport. The chapter also argues for mandatory motor vehicle emission standards, in line with European or US standards, to substantially lower vehicle greenhouse gas emissions (by helping to ensure that autonomous vehicles are increasingly AEVs).