DIVERSION MODEL FOR ESTIMATING HIGH-SPEED RAIL USE

Abstract

A DIVERSION MODEL IS PRESENTED THAT ESTIMATES HIGH-SPEED RAIL PASSENGER USE. IT IS APPLICABLE TO THE IDENTIFICATION OF CORRIDORS THAT WOULD BE LIKELY TO SUPPORT SUCH SERVICE AND TO THE DETERMINATION OF WHETHER PREVIOUSLY PROPOSED HIGH-SPEED RAIL SERVICE OFFERS SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL TO JUSTIFY CONDUCTING DETAILED FEASIBILITY STUDIES. THE POTENTIAL MARKET FOR HIGH-SPEED RAIL SERVICE IS ESTIMATED FIRST BY STRATIFYING INTERCITY TRIPS ON EACH NONRAIL MODE BY TERMINATION POINT (CBD OR NON-CBD), BY TRIP PURPOSE (BUSINESS OR NON-BUSINESS), AND BY GROUP SIZE FOR AUTOMOBILE TRIPS. THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RESULTING MARKET SEGMENTS ARE THEN ANALYZED BY USING TRAVEL TIME AND COST DATA FOR HIGH-SPEED RAIL AND EACH COMPETING MODE TO DETERMINE WHETHER EACH MARKET SEGMENT IS COMPLETELY DIVERTIBLE, POSSIBLY DIVERTIBLE, OR NONDIVERTIBLE TO HIGH-SPEED RAIL SERVICE. THE DIVERSION MODEL PROVIDED SATISFACTORY RESULTS IN A CONCEPT STUDY OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL SERVICE IN 3 TRAVEL CORRIDORS WITHIN NEW YORK STATE. THIS TECHNIQUE IS SIMPLE TO UNDERSTAND AND APPLY; IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE CALIBRATED IN THE TRADITIONAL MANNER, AND IT CAN BE APPLIED BY USING AVAILABLE TRAVEL DATA. /AUTHOR/