A model of export sales forecasting behavior and performance: development and testing

Abstract

This paper presents and tests a path model of export sales forecasting behavior and performance, incorporating organizational and export-specific characteristics. The proposed links are based on insights provided by the literature on forecasting practices as well as the export literature. The model is tested on a sample of UK exporters and is shown to have a good fit. The results indicate that the key determinants of export sales forecasting performance are organizational commitment, in addition to the resources devoted to the forecasting function. Implications of the findings for forecasting practice and performance are discussed and future research avenues identified.