Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Politics in East Central Europe

Abstract

While the economic voting literature is extensive, scholars have paid relatively little attention to the question of how or whether the economy affects voting behavior in nonWestern democracies. I address this issue by examining national elections in three recent East Central European democracies: Bulgaria, the former Czech and Slovak Federated Republic, and Poland. Using aggregate interregional data, the macroeconomic impact on turnout and voter choice is assessed in elections held from 1990 to 1992. I argue that the effect of economic adversity on turnout is withdrawal and that the effect on party choice is punishment for incumbents held responsible for economic reform and reward for both mainstream and extremist challengers. Implications for the study of elections and the future of electoral politics in East Central Europe are discussed.